When price crosses an average, returns, and crosses again, it is tempting to blame poor execution. Sometimes the rule was followed correctly; the environment simply did not contain the persistent movement the rule was designed to describe.
Diagnose the regime
On a printed chart, cover the right-hand side and move the cover forward one bar at a time. Note average slope, distance between fast and slow averages, and whether recent highs and lows progress in one direction. Repeated overlap and flat slope are evidence of compression, not a promise that a breakout is near.
A higher-timeframe trend filter can reduce some low-quality classifications, but it introduces delay and cannot remove all false changes. Adding filters until an old chart looks perfect is overfitting.
Separate process from outcome
Judge first whether the written rule was applied faithfully. Then ask whether the rule’s assumptions suited the observed regime. This keeps two different lessons apart: execution discipline and method limitation.